Today traders expect a fresh package of American fundamental data on the labor market.
Last data: 157K
Consensus forecast: 191K
Last month’s release on NFP was, to the surprise of many, a little disappointing and unexpected. Nevertheless, such "blotches" are quite possible and they do not talk about the general weakening of the US economy.
We expect the US economy to add about 191,000 new jobs in August, compared to the previous figure of 157,000.
The American job market is on solid footing, with the national unemployment rate near a 50-year low.
However, there are also some negative factors. The U.S. trade deficit widened for the first time in four months as exports fell and imports grew. Trade gaps with China, Mexico and Canada all increased. Trump administration has pressed China and other trading partners for new trade deals. The campaign has led to the U.S. and China imposing tariffs on billions of dollars of each other's goods.
Nevertheless, we are inclined to forecast positive data on the number of new jobs. If this forecast is justified, it will contribute to the next strengthening of the US dollar.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.3%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
We believe that the level of the average hourly earnings will remain at the same level - 0.3% on a monthly basis. The main factor that, most likely, the figures of this indicator will be at the level of the previous numbers is the season of summer holidays and festive days in the US.
If the forecast is justified, then this could have a very weak and short-term positive impact on the US currency.
Last data: 3.9%
Consensus forecast: 3.9%
The unemployment rate in the US is still at a record low level of 3.9%. American companies are looking harder for employees, sometimes adding more hours for part-timers and converting contractors to full-time workers.
We think that the indicator of the unemployment rate will remain at around 3.9%, which will positively affect the rate of the American currency. If the indicator exceeds the current figures, then we can expect a rally in all pairs with the US dollar.