The traders’ attention on the first Friday of the last month of the outgoing year will be directed to a fresh package of fundamental US data on the labor market.
Last data: 250K
Consensus forecast: 200K
We expect that in November, the volume of employment in the US non-farm sector will again show strong data - about 200 thousand new jobs. The US stock market even slowly but comes to life and the fundamental data on the growth of various spheres of the American economy indicate a very strong and, most importantly, stable development.
Special programs of the administration of the current US President Donald Trump in the automotive, steel, food industry, coupled with the growth of the services sector add optimism to investors. The recent agreement on a truce in the trade war with China also can not but rejoice representatives of companies from various sectors of the national economy.
If this forecast is justified, then we can expect a rally of the US currency.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.2%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
Average hourly earnings level, according to our forecast, will slightly increase - up to 0.3% on a monthly basis. This factor not only confirms the existing trend, but is also a kind of compensatory and corrective after hurricanes swept over the USA in the autumn. We believe that a consistently good value of this indicator will continue in the future.If the forecast is justified, then it will contribute to the growth of the US dollar, and together with strong NFP numbers can lead to a short-term rally.
Last data: 3.7%
Consensus forecast: 3.7%
The unemployment rate indicator is likely to remain unchanged compared to the previous month. Together with other indicators, the unemployment rate also shows a steady positive trend, despite its slight fluctuations in some months - from 3.6 to 3.7%.
Reports from national corporations still suggest that the US market needs an additional influx of labor. This undoubtedly benefits this indicator.
If this forecast is justified, then traders should expect a positive movement of the US currency. In the case of excellent data on other indicators, it is worth waiting for the rally of the American currency.