Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US NFP Report: Forex traders will receive the most important economic report out of the US today with the release of the NFP report. Many may remember the devastating report released for March and the risk remains for a downward revision to the March figure on top of the strong likelihood of a disappointment for the April NFP. Economists expected an increase of 230,000 jobs in April which is unlikely to be delivered judging by the ADP report which was released on Wednesday. Economists expected the addition of 200,000 private sector jobs, but the ADP showed the addition of only 169,000 jobs or 31,000 short of expectations. Another bearish signal is the downward revision to March which now shows only 175,000 jobs were added and therefore suggests potential downward revisions to the March NFP headline figure. Expectations for private sector jobs call for 225,000 additions in the NFP report and if we subtract the 31,000 miss from the ADP report this suggest we could see a figure around the 194,000 or a figure of 199,000 for the ADP report. The downward revisions need to be subtracted and the danger is for another lackluster NFP report. More importantly is the household survey which showed only 34,000 jobs were added in March. Forex traders need to be prepared to see actual job losses in the household survey which would be a very bearish development in the US labor market. Another big driving force will be the historically low labor force participation rate which currently stands at 62.7%. This has been a big drag on the labor market and points towards a very weak overall US labor market. Another key fact has been average weekly earnings which have not support a stronger US economy due to the depressed levels. Expectations call for an annualized increase of 2.3% while the average hourly workweek is likely to remain unchanged at 34.5 hours.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Canadian Dollar trades:
- Canadian Employment Report: Expectations call for job losses in the Canadian economy in April. Economists predict 5,000 jobs were lost last month which forex traders can compare to the 28,700 job gains which were reported in March. Over the past few months the Canadian economy has been more resilient than expected despite the collapse in oil process and commodity prices in general. Forex trader should be optimistic about a potential positive surprise. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 6.8% to 6.9% In April. The labor force participation rate is likely to remain unchanged at 65.9%.
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