Today in the US, will be released the October data of Nonfarm Payrolls but there are just little reasons to expect much positive from that report.
If look at forward-looking characteristics, the employment index of the ISM non-manufacturing sector shows a slowdown of the rise, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has grown to the highest value for 3 months, increasing the average level for the past 4 weeks, up to 257 thousand.
ADP reported the least than expected increase in the number of people employed in the corporate sector and worsen mood everywhere. Yet, the US Federal Reserve continues to say that the situation in the job market is improving and the rise of the number of employees was healthy.
The main reasons why the rise in the number of employees in the beginning of October was strong, based on the fact that the September performance was low. Alas, the reason for the low performance of the labor market is not entirely convincing, since employment in the manufacturing sector is excluded from the report on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Among other things, reduction in the number of layoffs and the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits does not mean that employment has increased. In any case, last month, leading indicators point to a large increase in the number of employed.
Anyway, to the employment report has promoted the US dollar, it is necessary that the number of employees grew by more than 200 thousand (forecast: 175K), unemployment fell to 4.9%, while average wages increased by 0.3% or more. This is a very high bar, and if some of these indicators will be below it, USD, likely to continue to decline in the run-up to presidential elections.