Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- Eurozone PPI: The Eurozone PPI for August is expected to decrease by 0.6% monthly and 2.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the decrease of 0.1% monthly and 2.1% annualized which was reported in July. The ECB is facing deflation while it is trying to stimulate the bond market with monthly purchases. This combination can lead to a great deal of fiscal as well as economic problems in the long-term and the sooner the ECB can realize this the better it would be the for the Eurozone economy as well as the Euro.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US NFP: The headline figure of the NFP report is expected to show 201,000 jobs added to the US economy in September and the unemployment rate is expected at 5.1% or full employment according to the US Fed. Forex traders can compare this to 173,000 jobs added in August. The unemployment rate was also 5.1%. Forex traders need to add the two month revision, in this case for July and August, into the headline figure in order to get a more accurate read. 197,000 private sector jobs are expected in August and Wednesday’s ADP figure showed 200,000 private sector jobs were added. The ADP also revised its August figure down to 186,000 which could mean that August’s NFP headline could also be revised lower. The NFP August private sector jobs figure was reported at 140,000, but may be less after today’s report. No manufacture jobs are expected for September. Forex traders can compare this to the loss of 17,000 manufacture jobs in August. The average hourly work-week is expected at 34.6 hours in September which would be the same as in August. The labor force participation rate is expected to stay at decade lows around 62.6% which is not good for the economy and suggests a weak labor market. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.2% in September monthly and 2.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the increase of 0.3% monthly reported in August and the increase of 2.2% annualized. The change in household employment should also be considered as it will give a more accurate look at how weak or strong the labor market has been. The underemployment rate is a much better indicator of the workforce without proper employment with some analysts suspecting the true unemployment rate in the US is much closer to 20%.
- US Factory Orders: Factory orders are expected to decrease by 1.3% in August. Forex traders can compare this to the increase of 0.4% which was reported in July.
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