Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Economists expect the final reading for the February Manufacturing PMI to confirm the initial report of 51.1. This means that the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone continues to expand which is a positive for the Eurozone economy. A higher Euro should be expected as a result of this. The German Manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at 50.9 lifting the overall Eurozone Manufacturing PMI while the French Manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to be a drag with a reading of 47.7. The wildcard today will come out of Italy where the Manufacturing PMI is expected to see an upward revision to 50.1 from the initially reported reading of 49.9. This could cause a slight upward revision for the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and offer a positive surprise to forex traders.
- Eurozone CPI: The CPI for February is expected to show a contraction of 0.5% year-over-year while the core CPI is expected to show an increase of 0.6%. Forex traders can compare this with the 0.6% contraction and the 0.6% increase reported in January. The slight improvement in the deflationary reading out of the CPI should be taken as a positive development.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- Markit Manufacturing PMI: Economists expect the Markit Manufacturing PMI to increase to 53.4 in February from the 53.0 reported in January. Should this be confirmed it will be a positive development for the British Pound, but given the strong advance it may not be strong enough to validate an extension of the move.
- Net Consumer Credit: Consumer credit likely rose in January with an increase to £0.9 billion from December’s £0.6 billion. Net lending securities in dwellings is also expected to increase from the £1.6 billion reported in December to £1.7 billion in January.
Should price action for the EURGBP remain inside the, or breakout above the, 0.7230 to 0.7280 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: H4
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.7250
- Take Profit Zone: 0.7530 – 0.7590
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7150
Should price action for the EURGBP breakdown below 0.7230 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: H4
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.7180
- Take Profit Zone: 0.7000 – 0.7100
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7280
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