Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German CPI: Today’s German CPI will be the last revision to March inflation on the consumer level. Economists expect the German CPI to be confirmed at a monthly increase of 0.5% for March and an annualized increase of 0.3%. The German EU harmonized CPI is also expected to be confirmed at a monthly increase of 0.5% and an annualized increase of 0.1%. The European Central Bank will closely monitor inflation reports out of the Eurozone especially after the start of their market interference on a monthly base.
- Eurozone Trade Surplus: Economists expect that the Eurozone trade surplus rose to €21.0 billion in February. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone trade surplus of €7.9 billion. The Eurozone, despite all its issues, was able to constantly print a trade surplus. This is largely attributed to the export powerhouse Germany which has been providing an overall lift the Eurozone data.
- ECB Announcement: The European Central Bank will announce its decision on its interest rate, marginal lending facility rate as well as deposit facility rate. It is very unlikely that the ECB will change any of those rates in the foreseeable future as the effect of the bond buying program will be gauged on top of other economic reports over the remainder of this year. The key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.05%, the marginal lending facility rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.30% and the deposit facility rate is expected to remain unchanged at -0.20%. Any unexpected surprise cut will tank the Euro to new multi-decade lows. As rates are expected to remain unchanged the Euro is unlikely to react until during and after the press conference 45 minutes after the announcement. ECB president Mario Draghi will respond to questions after his assessment of current economic trends in the Eurozone.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Canadian Dollar trades:
- Canadian Manufacturing Sales: The Canadian manufacturing sector is expected to show a minor rebound in February from January’s terrible start. Manufacturing sales plunged by 1.7% in January, but economists expected February to show an increase of 0.1%.
- Bank of Canada Announcement: The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, but forex traders should pay very close attention to the monetary policy report which will be released together with the announcement on interest rates which could give insights on potential future actions. The Canadian Dollar is expected to be subject to a sharp increase in volatility.
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