After the recent unrest related to the referendum in Italy, Forex market turned its attention to decisions of banks of leading countries on the future of monetary policy. Today, the attention of Forex traders will be focused on the Bank of Canada meeting, its decisions and their impact on the Canadian dollar.
As expected, the Canadian financiers do not dare to change their current policy, but the general mood of the Canadian regulator and its comments may affect trade and CAD rate in the financial markets.
Yesterday's financial reports have been mixed: the trade deficit declined, as manufacturing activity slowed. Basing on those releases, the Canadian economy has quite positive developments in recent years so that the Central Bank has kept its optimism.
Oil prices have passed the lowest point after a sudden drop in the beginning of November, retail sales began to grow, the unemployment rate in the country has decreased, and most fundamental - the cost pressure grows. The annual consumer price index jumped in early October from 1.1% to 1.5%, so the chairman of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz said he expects that inflation will return to the target level by mid-2017
Canadian officials have recently made it clear that they will be ready to reduce the current interest rates only in the case if the national economy begins to show results much worse than their own forecasts.
Currently, Canadians are afraid of future plans of the newly elected president of the United States Donald Trump, for a revision of the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Trump intends to provide the best trading conditions for US businesses.
In addition, taking into account the fact that the United States accounts for 76% of Canadian exports, possible American withdrawal from NAFTA agreement can be a very serious threat to the Canadian economy.
However, if we evaluate the latest statements of Trump, he is likely to soften his position and most likely will be satisfied with nominal changes. In the past, terms of the NAFTA have repeatedly changed and the economy in Canada went successfully through them.