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The fall of the Canadian Dollar
Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Thursday, 22 January 2015 0 comments
A lot of attention was on the Swiss Franc after the Swiss National Bank caused a sharp rally and the Swiss currency sky-rocketed. This rally took some big forex brokers the opposite way and caused a financial tsunami in the financial world. While the Swiss Franc plunged in less than an hour after the announcement by the Swiss Franc there have been other currency pair which caught a very sharp move, but in a more orderly fashion.
The Russian Ruble fell by over 50% as a result of what Ukraine did and how the West reacted. The Euro and the British Pound have plunged in the second-half of 2014. The Japanese Yen saw a sharp depreciation. The Australian and the New Zealand Dollar retreated from their highs and the US Dollar rallied despite the situation on the ground. The Canadian Dollar was also unable to escape the sharp moves witnessed in the past six to nine months.
The Canadian Dollar and Canada in general are viewed as a good example of economic and fiscal policies gone right, but events which unfolded especially during the second-half of 2014 did have a tremendous impact on the economy in Canada and therefore the Canadian Dollar as well. Canada is a fiscally
healthier economy than most its counterparts in the developed world which is a positive, but Canada is dependent on its commodity exports and especially oil.
The plunge in the price of oil had a ripple effect inside the Canadian economy and many reports reflected the weakness. Just this week forex traders received three reports out of Canada which plunged the Canadian Dollar. On Monday Canadian International Securities Transaction came in at C$42.9 billion for November which is less than half the $C9.53 billion reported in October. The Canadian Dollar took a hit. On Tuesday Canadian Manufacturing Shipments were reported to have plunged by 1.4% in November while October was revised down to show a drop of 1.1%.
The final two data points which send the Canadian Dollar into a tailspin came on Wednesday as Wholesale Sales contracted by 0.3% in November while the Bank of Canada surprised forex traders which an interest rate cut of 25 basis points down to 0.75%. This plunged the Canadian Dollar sharply and the USDCAD felt the biggest move with a rally of 400 pips before retreating from the 1.2400 level. The Canadian Dollar could have more room to decline before finding support.