Most recently, the National Bank of Ukraine assured citizens that he sees no preconditions for the devaluation of the hryvnia (UAH). Last week, the deputy chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Aleksey Tkachenko said: "We have all the possibilities to maintain stability of exchange rate."
Apparently, the possibility of the NBU did not coincide with its wishes. The fact that officials do not see the prerequisites for the collapse, does not mean that they are not a possibility of it. Since the beginning of 2014 the dollar on the interbank market rose by 35 kopeks. Last Friday, the hryvnia has fallen to four-year low - 8,55 UAH per USD.
The last time U.S. currency was so expensive in October 2009, which was the most difficult time for the Ukrainian economy. In those times the GDP fell by a record 15%.
The end of 2009 and the beginning of 2014 have two common features. In the autumn of 2009, Ukraine was unable to agree with the IMF on the fourth tranche of the loan, which led to hard shortages of currency and the collapse of hryvnia. Prior to this, the government has received from the fund $ 12 billion of the 17 billion dollars under the program “stand-by”.
The next tranche of $ 3.8 billion Ukraine had to receive in November 2009, but the country has not seen that money because of elections and the change of president in early 2010. In addition, the Ukrainian government has not fulfilled one of the basic requirements of the IMF - increasing tariffs for the population and freezing of social welfare payments.
Presently, the main creditor of the state apparatus is not the IMF but Russia, which promised to provide$ 15 billion. Last December, $ 3 billion of them have already been transferred.
The next tranche of the Russian loan is scheduled for this month but the money has not yet arrived. There is little doubt that one of the conditions of the Kremlin are a crackdown of the demonstrations and making the "order" in the country.
President Yanukovych can not cope with this task. The people in revolt every day seize state buildings in provinces and Kiev.
Yanukovych's chances to stay in his seat in the near future, not to mention the election year of 2015, decreasing every day. Most likely, this is why Russia pulls with the next money tranche for the current country’s government.
As a result, as in 2009, the country is experiencing a hard shortage of currency. In addition, the demand for US dollars has increased markedly in connection with the revolutionary situation. Many bankers and businessmen, including those who close to the Ukrainian officials, rushed to buy foreign currency for withdrawal to safer harbor.
Lots of businessmen scare regime's attempts to establish outright dictatorship with the prospect of international isolation. In this regard, last week the demand for currency in the Ukrainian interbank market has grown significantly.
Introduction by Yanukovych a regime of total dictatorship will not just reduce investment in the country but will result in capital flight. If this really happens, the country will most likely not even see the promised Russian and Chinese loans.
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