Greece, though not without obstacles, but comes to a gradual recovery of the economy, although the program of its external financial support already drew a hole again - this time at 4 billion euros, according to the sources of the EU leadership.
A spokesman for the European Commission, Simon O'Connor told reporters last week that the Eurogroup on the basis of the recommendations of the "troika" (representatives of the ECB, the IMF and the EC) has decided that Greece has fulfilled all the conditions of lenders to rebuild the economy of the country in accordance with the previously approved plan.
If a country deviates from the set of macroeconomic goals, lenders require the adoption of additional measures, such as cost-cutting budget. “Troika” will not provide next loans without completing the macroeconomic plan that was previously adopted for Greece..
Eurogroup’s working team on last Friday finally approved the allocation of portions of the country of the loan in the total amount of 4 billion euros. The positive decision of the Eurogroup of euro tranche is not possible without a positive conclusion of the "troika", which means that the country follows the claims of creditors.
The representatives of the "troika" still expect a recovery of economic growth in Greece in 2014. Greece's GDP for the first quarter of this year fell by 5.3%, while the overall economy of the country has been falling for the sixth consecutive year. The major problem in Greece is a very high unemployment rate, which is close to 27%.
Macroeconomic forecast didn’t change since May. "Troika" still believes in the fact that the country's public debt will reduce below 120% of GDP in 2021, and its level in the current year will be the highest (175% of GDP), after which the rate will go to decline.
Fiscal consolidation – a reducing the budget deficit - in the opinion of the "troika" are generally going in the right direction. The primary budget deficit (the deficit net of interest costs) last year was better than planned. In the current year, according to the latest statistics, the figure is also consistent with the goals set by the lenders.
Despite progress in reducing the budget deficit and hopes to economic growth’s return next year, lenders have found a deficit in the bailout program of about 4 billion euros. The disadvantage is observed in the program for support to Greece's budget.
According to sources in the leadership of the EU, the assistance program is fully funded only until July 2014. However, the € 4 billion is not a huge number, so it will be possible to find a way to settle the deficit.
Currently, in Greece remains unspent about 10 billion euros of the limit of funds that international lenders allocated to support the country's banks. The representative of the EU leaders did not deny the possibility of sending the money to cover the holes in the financial aid program.
A size of requirements of credit institutions of Greece will be known at the beginning of next year on the basis of the stress tests. So only in the next year it will become clear whether there will be money in the field of financial support of banks.