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Foreign Exchange Forecasting
Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Thursday, 06 October 2016 1 comments
Businesses that are involved in global trading need to be able to predict forex market behavior. This ability is essential when concluding deals and arranging for payments to protect themselves from possible adverse outcomes of forex market behavior or to gain from positive situations. Trying to predict a market is a complex exercise and requires the use a scientific basis rather than guesswork to predict forex market behavior. Forecasting in forex means predicting current and future market trends by utilizing existing data and different facts.
For those who trade in forex, knowing the techniques of how to forecast the forex market can be the resounding difference between those who trade successfully and those end up losing money. As soon as you start to learn about forex trading, you should also start learning how to forecast the forex trading market. There are a number of methods available to a trader when forecasting the forex market. Each system is used to gain an understanding of how forex works and how various fluctuations in the market can affect traders and consequently currency rates.
Many entities have an interest in being able to forecast the direction of exchange rates. Whether you are a business or a trader, having an exchange rate forecast to guide your decision making can be very important to
minimize risks and maximize returns. There are numerous methods of forecasting exchange rates, likely because none of them have been shown to be superior to any other. This speaks to the difficulty of generating a quality forecast.
The first method used by forex forecaster is technical analysis. There are three basic principles which are applied to make projections. These principles are based on activity in the forex market in relation to current events, trends in movements in prices and past forex history. At the time of each market action, almost everything important from supply and demand, current politics and the current state of market in question is taken into consideration. It is widely believed that forex prices are a direct reflection of events currently taking place in the world.
The second method of forex forecasting is fundamental analysis, which is used by experienced traders as well as brokers to forecast trends in forex. This type of analysis is also used to predict the future of price movements formed on events that have not occurred yet. This may range from political to geopolitical changes, environmental factors and even natural disasters. Considerable factors and statistics are applied to predict how certain events will affect supply and demand, along with rates in the forex market.