Let us play a quick game here. I will ask one question and you will brainstorm the first thing that pops to mind. Think of it as a version of the old game show classic Family Feud. In case you have forgotten the rules of Family Feud do not worry. We asked 100 people, in our case we may extend that to 100,000 people the following question and you try to find the five most common answers.
Are you ready?
It does not really matter. Here is the question:
Which country do you first think of when you hear Eurozone debt contagion?
Great, those are the top five answers when it comes to the Eurozone debt contagion. Belgium and Austria are on the brink to be forced into bailout territory by early next year while France as well as Germany try to hold it all together for the time being. Greece will obviously be the first country which will be forced out of the Eurozone.
Just when you thought politicians have their hands full with all the fires burning on the Eurozone periphery in order to prevent the unavoidable collapse they received word of another huge fire from a very unlikely source. This fire burns in the North of Europe, the northern most member of the Eurozone. This country has a very good financial record and did not violate EU budget guidelines since 1996. It is also a country with a stable economy, healthy population as well as fiscal management which ensures future growth.
Furthermore, this country had its own financial crisis induced by its banking system in the early 1990’s which forced it to make necessary changes associated with a painful recession which lasted roughly five years, but the result was a budget deficit of 9.4% was turned into a budget surplus of 7.9% of GDP by 2000.
Which country am I talking about?
The Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja stated that his country is in preparations for a Eurozone break-up. In the end Finland may be the white knight in shining armor which will force the necessary change for the Eurozone which would allow Europe to restructure into a currency which will offer sustainability. It will force the changes regardless of what politicians and Euro founding fathers have to say.
It will be painful, but by 2018 the EU will have two currencies, a banking union as well as one President, one Foreign Minister, one Defense Minister as well as one Interior Minister and so on. You get the idea. We will have a unified European Union, home to over 500 million citizens and the largest economy in the world.
The EU will once again become a stable growth engine and support as well we benefit from growth in BRICS. In the end it may all come down to Finland which holds all the power necessary to force necessary change and the creation of a strong and sustainable new old world. Do not be surprised if some politicians will try to force Finland into softening their Eurozone break-up stance which is exactly what we want as it will simply fuel the fire to force change.