Tomorrow will be a very interesting trading day especially for the US Dollar and for the Canadian Dollar. The US as well as Canada will report their employment figures for April which will make the USDCAD the most interesting currency pair to trade after he release of the data. Forex traders should expect an increase in volatility as well as trading volume and wide price swings as positions will be adjusted based on the released data.
When will the US NFP report and the Canadian employment report be released? Both reports will be released at 08:30 Eastern Standard Time. Trading prior to the release may be rather calm without too much activity as forex traders will await the data and react to it. Many traders who have taken up positons prior to the release with tight stop loss orders are most likely faced with losses after the release due to the price swings.
What is expected from the US NFP report for April? Economists expect that 230,000 jobs were added in April; 225,000 of those jobs are expected from the private sector. The ADP report which was released yesterday showed only 169,000 jobs were added. Economists expected 200,000 job additions. March was also revised lower to show only 175,000 jobs were added which suggests that we will see downward revisions in tomorrow’s NFP report.
The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 5.4% in April, but the underemployment rate is hovering near the 11.0% level. The labor force participation rate is a key data point forex traders need to keep in mind. The average hourly workweek is expected to stay put at 34.5 hours and the key driver could be average hourly earnings. Forex traders should also focus much more on the household employment change which could offer a devastating blow to US Dollar bulls.
What is expected from the Canadian employment report? Economists expect job losses in Canada for April. Tomorrow’s employment report is expected to shoe 5,000 jobs were lost in April and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%. Forex traders should watch out for the full-time and part-time figures as it will give a better insight on the health of the Canadian labor market. The labor force participation rate is expected to show no change from the 65.9 level.